Montreal Canadiens at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:11Alex Killorn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (9)2–3
- P214:17Frank Vatrano Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (23), Trevor Zegras (9)2–2
- P213:37Mason McTavish Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (12), Leo Carlsson (8)2–1
- P114:57Christian Dvorak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (20), Alex Newhook (5)2–0
- P110:35Joel Armia Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:35Joel Armia Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (15)MTL 1 – 0 ANA · MTL 56% → 71% +15MTL 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P114:57Christian Dvorak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (20), Alex Newhook (5)MTL 2 – 0 ANA · MTL 71% → 84% +12MTL 71% → 84%+12 pts
- P213:37Mason McTavish Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (12), Leo Carlsson (8)MTL 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 11% → 26% +14ANA 11% → 26%+14 pts
- P214:17Frank Vatrano Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (23), Trevor Zegras (9)MTL 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 25% → 46% +20ANA 25% → 46%+20 pts
- P311:11Alex Killorn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (9)MTL 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 48% → 81% +34ANA 48% → 81%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 56%
- ML MTL -140 / ANA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- MTL: Elo 46.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -128
- ANA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +5 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +25 Elo | ANA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 46.6%30th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%9th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 16th of 3211–13 | Road vs home | 11–1427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–21 | 33–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 27–24 | 18–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–0 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.