Utah Hockey Club at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Barrett HaytonGoals3
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Barrett HaytonPoints3
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists2
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:30Mikey Anderson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (25)3–5
- P311:00Barrett Hayton Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (8), Sean Durzi (3)3–4
- P39:41Trevor Lewis Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jordan Spence (15), Phillip Danault (24)2–4
- P216:10Alex Laferriere Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Drew Doughty (3), Joel Edmundson (9)2–3
- P27:59Kevin Fiala Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (33), Drew Doughty (2)2–2
- P25:50Barrett Hayton Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (32), Clayton Keller (41)2–1
- P18:22Drew Doughty Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (15), Joel Edmundson (8)1–1
- P17:54Barrett Hayton Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Nick Schmaltz (31), Dylan Guenther (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:54Barrett Hayton Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Nick Schmaltz (31), Dylan Guenther (22)UTAH 1 – 0 LA · UTAH 40% → 56% +16UTAH 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P18:22Drew Doughty Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (15), Joel Edmundson (8)UTAH 1 – 1 LA · LA 44% → 60% +16LA 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P25:50Barrett Hayton Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (32), Clayton Keller (41)UTAH 2 – 1 LA · UTAH 42% → 61% +19UTAH 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P27:59Kevin Fiala Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (33), Drew Doughty (2)UTAH 2 – 2 LA · LA 38% → 58% +20LA 38% → 58%+20 pts
- P216:10Alex Laferriere Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Drew Doughty (3), Joel Edmundson (9)UTAH 2 – 3 LA · LA 57% → 77% +21LA 57% → 77%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML UTAH +145 / LA -170
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- LA: Elo 60.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LA -154
- UTAH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −2 | UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +76 Elo | LA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 61.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%9th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 11th of 3215–14 | Road vs home | 17–51st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–30 | 25–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–32 | 21–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.