Dallas Stars at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals2
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints3
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Phillip DanaultAssists2
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kevin Fiala Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Adrian Kempe Goal Backhand0–2
- P311:40Anze Kopitar Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Adrian Kempe (21), Trevor Moore (15)4–4
- P39:41Matt Duchene Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (32), Esa Lindell (14)4–3
- P36:53Mavrik Bourque Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (21), Evgenii Dadonov (15)3–3
- P211:43Alex Laferriere Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (18), Kevin Fiala (14)2–3
- P29:29Thomas Harley Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (12), Matt Duchene (32)2–2
- P28:16Kevin Fiala Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (22)1–2
- P119:58Matt Duchene Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Smith (4), Mathew Dumba (3)1–1
- P10:11Warren Foegele Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:29Thomas Harley Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (12), Matt Duchene (32)DAL 2 – 2 LA · DAL 30% → 50% +20DAL 30% → 50%+20 pts
- P211:43Alex Laferriere Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (18), Kevin Fiala (14)DAL 2 – 3 LA · LA 50% → 70% +20LA 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P36:53Mavrik Bourque Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (21), Evgenii Dadonov (15)DAL 3 – 3 LA · DAL 22% → 50% +28DAL 22% → 50%+28 pts
- P39:41Matt Duchene Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (32), Esa Lindell (14)DAL 4 – 3 LA · DAL 50% → 81% +31DAL 50% → 81%+31 pts
- P311:40Anze Kopitar Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Adrian Kempe (21), Trevor Moore (15)DAL 4 – 4 LA · LA 16% → 50% +34LA 16% → 50%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 50%
- ML DAL -110 / LA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- LA: Elo 48.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LA -100
- DAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +5 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +8 Elo | DAL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.55th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 52.0%8th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%10th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3214–10 | Road vs home | 16–41st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–29 | 24–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–25 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–33 | 20–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–1 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.