Montreal Canadiens at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Mike MathesonGoals1
- Alex NewhookAssists1
- Mike MathesonPoints1
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals2
- Quinton ByfieldAssists3
- Quinton ByfieldPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:30Trevor Moore Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (13)3–6
- P314:12Kevin Fiala Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (16), Quinton Byfield (17)3–5
- P313:37Logan Mailloux Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (7), Kirby Dach (12)3–4
- P310:46Kevin Fiala Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (16), Quinton Byfield (16)2–4
- P33:37Alexandre Carrier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P30:15Brandt Clarke Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (32), Alex Turcotte (13)1–3
- P25:23Warren Foegele Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P23:51Mike Matheson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (23), Lane Hutson (38)1–1
- P11:39Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:39Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (15)MTL 0 – 1 LA · LA 69% → 80% +12LA 69% → 80%+12 pts
- P23:51Mike Matheson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (23), Lane Hutson (38)MTL 1 – 1 LA · MTL 20% → 35% +15MTL 20% → 35%+15 pts
- P25:23Warren Foegele Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 2 LA · LA 65% → 80% +16LA 65% → 80%+16 pts
- P30:15Brandt Clarke Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (32), Alex Turcotte (13)MTL 1 – 3 LA · LA 82% → 94% +12LA 82% → 94%+12 pts
- P33:37Alexandre Carrier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 2 – 3 LA · MTL 5% → 17% +12MTL 5% → 17%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- LA 69%
- ML MTL +210 / LA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- LA: Elo 65.1%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -221
- MTL +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.2 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −1 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +108 Elo | LA 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 69.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.55th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 51.7%9th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 32 |
| 14th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 15–41st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–23 | 23–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 28–25 | 19–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 0–3 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.