Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Jacob TroubaAssists1
- Jacob TroubaPoints1
Kings- Phillip DanaultAssists1
- Phillip DanaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Leo Carlsson Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Trevor Zegras Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P317:21Adrian Kempe Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (23), Warren Foegele (14)1–1
- P37:04Brian Dumoulin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (12), Leo Carlsson (10)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P37:04Brian Dumoulin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (12), Leo Carlsson (10)ANA 1 – 0 LA · ANA 42% → 72% +30ANA 42% → 72%+30 pts
- P317:21Adrian Kempe Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (23), Warren Foegele (14)ANA 1 – 1 LA · LA 5% → 54% +49LA 5% → 54%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- LA 67%
- ML ANA +195 / LA -230
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- LA: Elo 62.4%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -206
- ANA +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.2 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +88 Elo | LA 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 67.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 52.1%8th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 24th of 3210–16 | Road vs home | 17–41st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–18 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 32–17 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–35 | 21–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–5 LA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.