Utah Hockey Club at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Jack McBainGoals1
- Jack McBainAssists1
- Jack McBainPoints2
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals2
- Alex OvechkinAssists3
- Tom WilsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Nick Schmaltz Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P318:29Tom Wilson Goal (24) Deflected, assists: Alex Ovechkin (17), John Carlson (31)4–4
- P34:49Dylan Strome Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (16), Connor McMichael (22)4–3
- P22:47Dylan Guenther Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (40), Mikhail Sergachev (26)4–2
- P112:38Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (18), Alex Ovechkin (15)3–2
- P17:07Jack McBain Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (16), Josh Doan (5)3–1
- P13:47Tom Wilson Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (31), Dylan Strome (38)2–1
- P11:42Michael Carcone Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Guenther (21), Nick DeSimone (4)2–0
- P11:10Josh Doan Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack McBain (6), Connor Ingram (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:07Jack McBain Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (16), Josh Doan (5)UTAH 3 – 1 WSH · UTAH 53% → 68% +15UTAH 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P112:38Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (18), Alex Ovechkin (15)UTAH 3 – 2 WSH · WSH 30% → 45% +15WSH 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P22:47Dylan Guenther Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (40), Mikhail Sergachev (26)UTAH 4 – 2 WSH · UTAH 58% → 75% +17UTAH 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P34:49Dylan Strome Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (16), Connor McMichael (22)UTAH 4 – 3 WSH · WSH 10% → 29% +19WSH 10% → 29%+19 pts
- P318:29Tom Wilson Goal (24) Deflected, assists: Alex Ovechkin (17), John Carlson (31)UTAH 4 – 4 WSH · WSH 1% → 52% +51WSH 1% → 52%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 63%
- ML UTAH +160 / WSH -190
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 70.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -170
- UTAH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.4 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +9 | UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +154 Elo | WSH 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 65.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 91.3%2nd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3214–14 | Road vs home | 17–97th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–30 | 34–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 20–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–32 | 25–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.