Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Taylor RaddyshAssists2
- Jakob ChychrunPoints2
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals2
- Rodrigo AbolsAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:05Jakob Chychrun Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (30), Taylor Raddysh (16)4–3
- P36:23Lars Eller Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (15)3–3
- P211:19Matvei Michkov Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Rodrigo Abols (1), Jamie Drysdale (10)2–3
- P27:23Tyson Foerster Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (5), Travis Konecny (38)2–2
- P24:17Connor McMichael Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Aliaksei Protas (24), Jakob Chychrun (21)2–1
- P119:07Alex Ovechkin Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (12), Dylan Strome (37)1–1
- P117:31Matvei Michkov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:07Alex Ovechkin Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (12), Dylan Strome (37)WSH 1 – 1 PHI · WSH 41% → 58% +17WSH 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P27:23Tyson Foerster Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (5), Travis Konecny (38)WSH 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 25% → 43% +18PHI 25% → 43%+18 pts
- P211:19Matvei Michkov Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Rodrigo Abols (1), Jamie Drysdale (10)WSH 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 43% → 64% +21PHI 43% → 64%+21 pts
- P36:23Lars Eller Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (15)WSH 3 – 3 PHI · WSH 26% → 55% +29WSH 26% → 55%+29 pts
- P312:05Jakob Chychrun Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (30), Taylor Raddysh (16)WSH 4 – 3 PHI · WSH 54% → 86% +33WSH 54% → 86%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 60%
- ML WSH -165 / PHI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -149
- PHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 2.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −12 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +63 Elo | WSH 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 88.5%32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 1st of 3218–9 | Road vs home | 12–1324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–19 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–14 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 20–5 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29 | 27–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–1 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.