Utah Hockey Club at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals2
- Matias MaccelliAssists1
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Hurricanes- Jalen ChatfieldGoals1
- Jackson BlakeAssists2
- Jalen ChatfieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:34Jack Roslovic Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (9), Juha Jaaska (4)3–7
- P317:16Jordan Martinook Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (35), Seth Jarvis (23)3–6
- P316:11Clayton Keller Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (25), Dylan Guenther (20)3–5
- P219:15Seth Jarvis Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Jackson Blake (8)2–5
- P214:14Sebastian Aho Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (22), Jalen Chatfield (8)2–4
- P210:19Clayton Keller Goal (19) Backhand, assists: none2–3
- P28:35Sebastian Aho Goal (19) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P26:25Seth Jarvis Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (16), Andrei Svechnikov (23)1–2
- P117:35Josh Doan Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (10), Michael Carcone (7)1–1
- P110:09Jalen Chatfield Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (18), Andrei Svechnikov (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:09Jalen Chatfield Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (18), Andrei Svechnikov (22)UTAH 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 62% → 76% +14CAR 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P117:35Josh Doan Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (10), Michael Carcone (7)UTAH 1 – 1 CAR · UTAH 23% → 38% +15UTAH 23% → 38%+15 pts
- P26:25Seth Jarvis Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (16), Andrei Svechnikov (23)UTAH 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 60% → 77% +17CAR 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P210:19Clayton Keller Goal (19) Backhand, assists: noneUTAH 2 – 3 CAR · UTAH 10% → 22% +12UTAH 10% → 22%+12 pts
- P214:14Sebastian Aho Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (22), Jalen Chatfield (8)UTAH 2 – 4 CAR · CAR 78% → 91% +13CAR 78% → 91%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML UTAH +165 / CAR -195
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.1%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -175
- UTAH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.4 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −1 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +94 Elo | CAR 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 66.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 55.9%1st of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 10th of 3214–13 | Road vs home | 20–72nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–29 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 22–28 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–32 | 22–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.