Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Golden Knights- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Brett HowdenAssists2
- Brett HowdenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:29Tomas Hertl Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Brett Howden (9), Nicolas Roy (13)1–3
- P30:18Brandon Saad Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (6), Brett Howden (8)1–2
- P211:02Ivan Barbashev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (10), Kaedan Korczak (4)1–1
- P26:22Jake DeBrusk Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (10), Carson Soucy (7)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:22Jake DeBrusk Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (10), Carson Soucy (7)VAN 1 – 0 VGK · VAN 37% → 56% +19VAN 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P211:02Ivan Barbashev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (10), Kaedan Korczak (4)VAN 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 41% → 62% +21VGK 41% → 62%+21 pts
- P30:18Brandon Saad Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (6), Brett Howden (8)VAN 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 60% → 81% +21VGK 60% → 81%+21 pts
- P319:29Tomas Hertl Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Brett Howden (9), Nicolas Roy (13)VAN 1 – 3 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 67%
- ML VAN +190 / VGK -225
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 59.3%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- VGK -201
- VAN +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.3 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +65 Elo | VGK 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 66.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 53.9%4th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 9th of 3215–12 | Road vs home | 19–95th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–31 | 31–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 21–23 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 26–29 | 26–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–3 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.