Vegas Golden Knights at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Nicolas RoyGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists1
- Nicolas RoyPoints1
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Stefan NoesenAssists1
- Ondrej PalatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:43Ondrej Palat Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (13), Jesper Bratt (46)3–1
- P34:06Jack Eichel Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (16), Zach Whitecloud (5)3–0
- P211:18Shea Theodore Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (9), Ivan Barbashev (19)2–0
- P23:09Nicolas Roy Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Brayden McNabb (9)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:09Nicolas Roy Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Brayden McNabb (9)VGK 1 – 0 NJ · VGK 53% → 70% +18VGK 53% → 70%+18 pts
- P211:18Shea Theodore Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (9), Ivan Barbashev (19)VGK 2 – 0 NJ · VGK 72% → 87% +15VGK 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P34:06Jack Eichel Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (16), Zach Whitecloud (5)VGK 3 – 0 NJ · VGK 93% → 98% +6VGK 93% → 98%+6 pts
- P315:43Ondrej Palat Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (13), Jesper Bratt (46)VGK 3 – 1 NJ · NJ <1% → <1% +0NJ <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 53%
- ML VGK -125 / NJ +105
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 48.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -114
- NJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.8 – 2.7 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −13 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +9 Elo | NJ 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.54th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 53.2%5th of 32 |
| 20th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.9%7th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 14th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 14–1216th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–24 | 22–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 20–22 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 25–29 | 19–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.