New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Ondrej PalatAssists1
- Ondrej PalatPoints1
Penguins- Kevin HayesGoals1
- Pierre-Olivier JosephAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Timo Meier Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Dougie Hamilton Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Anthony Beauvillier Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Paul Cotter Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Rickard Rakell Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P37:53Kevin Hayes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: P.O Joseph (3), Anthony Beauvillier (5)2–2
- P214:56Rickard Rakell Goal (24) Wrap-around, assists: Sidney Crosby (41), Erik Karlsson (31)2–1
- P29:14Jack Hughes Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (45)2–0
- P119:43Jack Hughes Goal (22) Deflected, assists: Jesper Bratt (44), Ondrej Palat (10)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:43Jack Hughes Goal (22) Deflected, assists: Jesper Bratt (44), Ondrej Palat (10)NJ 1 – 0 PIT · NJ 54% → 71% +17NJ 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P29:14Jack Hughes Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (45)NJ 2 – 0 PIT · NJ 73% → 87% +14NJ 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P214:56Rickard Rakell Goal (24) Wrap-around, assists: Sidney Crosby (41), Erik Karlsson (31)NJ 2 – 1 PIT · PIT 11% → 26% +15PIT 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P37:53Kevin Hayes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: P.O Joseph (3), Anthony Beauvillier (5)NJ 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 19% → 48% +28PIT 19% → 48%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML NJ -135 / PIT +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 49.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +8 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +5 Elo | PIT 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 48.2%26th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.4%28th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 10th of 3213–13 | Road vs home | 13–1318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–32 | 26–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–30 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 19–35 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–1 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.