Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Brandon SaadAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Bruins- Nikita ZadorovGoals1
- Nikita ZadorovAssists1
- Nikita ZadorovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:50Tomas Hertl Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (50), Mark Stone (35)4–3
- P34:54Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (41), Jack Eichel (49)3–3
- P219:26Zach Whitecloud Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (17), Brett Howden (7)2–3
- P215:07Morgan Geekie Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (40)1–3
- P115:09Mark Stone Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (40), Brandon Saad (10)1–2
- P113:49Nikita Zadorov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P13:17Brad Marchand Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:09Mark Stone Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (40), Brandon Saad (10)VGK 1 – 2 BOS · VGK 26% → 41% +15VGK 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P215:07Morgan Geekie Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (40)VGK 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 66% → 84% +17BOS 66% → 84%+17 pts
- P219:26Zach Whitecloud Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (17), Brett Howden (7)VGK 2 – 3 BOS · VGK 13% → 31% +18VGK 13% → 31%+18 pts
- P34:54Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (41), Jack Eichel (49)VGK 3 – 3 BOS · VGK 27% → 54% +28VGK 27% → 54%+28 pts
- P318:50Tomas Hertl Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (50), Mark Stone (35)VGK 4 – 3 BOS · VGK 51% → >99% +48VGK 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 59%
- ML VGK -155 / BOS +135
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 47.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- VGK -143
- BOS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +16 Elo | BOS 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.7% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 32 |
| 19th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 13th of 3213–14 | Road vs home | 18–1111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–24 | 24–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–22 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–30 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.