Boston Bruins at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Nikita ZadorovAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Jonny BrodzinskiAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:54Chris Kreider Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (25), Adam Fox (39)2–3
- P35:27Vincent Trocheck Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (9), Jonny Brodzinski (4)2–2
- P215:19Elias Lindholm Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (24), Nikita Zadorov (10)2–1
- P215:03David Pastrnak Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (21), Charlie McAvoy (16)1–1
- P26:07Artemi Panarin Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:07Artemi Panarin Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (24)BOS 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 63% → 79% +16NYR 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P215:03David Pastrnak Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (21), Charlie McAvoy (16)BOS 1 – 1 NYR · BOS 20% → 39% +19BOS 20% → 39%+19 pts
- P215:19Elias Lindholm Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (24), Nikita Zadorov (10)BOS 2 – 1 NYR · BOS 39% → 61% +22BOS 39% → 61%+22 pts
- P35:27Vincent Trocheck Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (9), Jonny Brodzinski (4)BOS 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 30% → 58% +29NYR 30% → 58%+29 pts
- P311:54Chris Kreider Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (25), Adam Fox (39)BOS 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 56% → 88% +31NYR 56% → 88%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 67%
- ML BOS +190 / NYR -225
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- NYR: Elo 61.5%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- NYR -201
- BOS +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.8 – 3.7 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −2 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +81 Elo | NYR 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.9% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 27th of 329–17 | Road vs home | 13–1318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–32 | 20–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 24–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–4 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.