Chicago Blackhawks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Alex VlasicAssists1
- Alex VlasicPoints1
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals2
- Cole SillingerAssists2
- Kent JohnsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:44Adam Fantilli Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (35), Dmitri Voronkov (18)1–5
- P313:51Zach Werenski Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (1), Cole Sillinger (20)1–4
- P212:42Denton Mateychuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P24:53Craig Smith Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alex Vlasic (19), Frank Nazar (7)1–2
- P21:12Kent Johnson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (44), Dmitri Voronkov (17)0–2
- P14:10Kent Johnson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (19), Zach Werenski (43)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:10Kent Johnson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (19), Zach Werenski (43)CHI 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 60% → 73% +14CBJ 60% → 73%+14 pts
- P21:12Kent Johnson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (44), Dmitri Voronkov (17)CHI 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 74% → 87% +12CBJ 74% → 87%+12 pts
- P24:53Craig Smith Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alex Vlasic (19), Frank Nazar (7)CHI 1 – 2 CBJ · CHI 13% → 25% +13CHI 13% → 25%+13 pts
- P212:42Denton Mateychuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 76% → 89% +13CBJ 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P313:51Zach Werenski Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (1), Cole Sillinger (20)CHI 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ >99% → >99% +1CBJ >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 60%
- ML CHI +140 / CBJ -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- CBJ: Elo 64.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -149
- CHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.5 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +5 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +106 Elo | CBJ 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.8% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%28th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–21 | Road vs home | 17–109th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–25 | 34–22 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 29–26 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.