New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Will CuylleAssists1
- Will CuyllePoints2
Blue Jackets- Justin DanforthGoals1
- Zachary Aston-ReeseAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:21Will Cuylle Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (20)4–3
- P31:57Urho Vaakanainen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Will Cuylle (15), Vincent Trocheck (19)3–3
- P217:17James van Riemsdyk Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Damon Severson (16), Cole Sillinger (18)2–3
- P26:38Mika Zibanejad Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (40), Chris Kreider (4)2–2
- P115:29Justin Danforth Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jack Johnson (5), Zach Aston-Reese (8)1–2
- P114:31Kent Johnson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (42), Adam Fantilli (17)1–1
- P11:56Arthur Kaliyev Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan Lindgren (13), Mika Zibanejad (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:29Justin Danforth Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jack Johnson (5), Zach Aston-Reese (8)NYR 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 44% → 61% +17CBJ 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P26:38Mika Zibanejad Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (40), Chris Kreider (4)NYR 2 – 2 CBJ · NYR 36% → 55% +19NYR 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P217:17James van Riemsdyk Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Damon Severson (16), Cole Sillinger (18)NYR 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 46% → 69% +23CBJ 46% → 69%+23 pts
- P31:57Urho Vaakanainen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Will Cuylle (15), Vincent Trocheck (19)NYR 3 – 3 CBJ · NYR 29% → 54% +25NYR 29% → 54%+25 pts
- P318:21Will Cuylle Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (20)NYR 4 – 3 CBJ · NYR 51% → 99% +48NYR 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 57%
- ML NYR -145 / CBJ +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- NYR: Elo 45.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -133
- CBJ +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.5 – 3.0 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +6 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +35 Elo | CBJ 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.1%30th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 17–97th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–34 | 33–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–25 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 29–17 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–2 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.