Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Blake LizotteGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints2
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints1
Scoring summary
- P211:59Philip Tomasino Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (22), Michael Bunting (14)3–2
- P29:07Rickard Rakell Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (21), Anthony Beauvillier (6)2–2
- P23:39Adam Fox Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (18), Ryan Lindgren (12)1–2
- P22:25Blake Lizotte Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (5), Erik Karlsson (32)1–1
- P18:31Vincent Trocheck Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:31Vincent Trocheck Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (18)PIT 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 64% → 77% +13NYR 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P22:25Blake Lizotte Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (5), Erik Karlsson (32)PIT 1 – 1 NYR · PIT 22% → 38% +16PIT 22% → 38%+16 pts
- P23:39Adam Fox Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (18), Ryan Lindgren (12)PIT 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 62% → 78% +16NYR 62% → 78%+16 pts
- P29:07Rickard Rakell Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (21), Anthony Beauvillier (6)PIT 2 – 2 NYR · PIT 22% → 39% +17PIT 22% → 39%+17 pts
- P211:59Philip Tomasino Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (22), Michael Bunting (14)PIT 3 – 2 NYR · PIT 40% → 61% +21PIT 40% → 61%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 65%
- ML PIT +175 / NYR -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYR: Elo 61.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -186
- PIT +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −1 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +81 Elo | NYR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 63.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 28th of 329–19 | Road vs home | 14–1317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–28 | 20–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 29–26 | 24–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–4 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.