Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals2
- Max DomiAssists2
- Nick RobertsonPoints2
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:28Pontus Holmberg Goal (5) Deflected, assists: William Nylander (25), John Tavares (26)5–2
- P312:07Chris Tanev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (14), David Kampf (5)4–2
- P219:53Philipp Kurashev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (8), Tyler Bertuzzi (13)3–2
- P219:45Nicholas Robertson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (19), Steven Lorentz (9)3–1
- P29:45Jake McCabe Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (15), Auston Matthews (26)2–1
- P27:09Nicholas Robertson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (18), Bobby McMann (9)1–1
- P119:49Teuvo Teravainen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (12), Ryan Donato (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:49Teuvo Teravainen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (12), Ryan Donato (19)TOR 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 34% → 52% +17CHI 34% → 52%+17 pts
- P27:09Nicholas Robertson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (18), Bobby McMann (9)TOR 1 – 1 CHI · TOR 45% → 64% +19TOR 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P29:45Jake McCabe Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (15), Auston Matthews (26)TOR 2 – 1 CHI · TOR 64% → 81% +17TOR 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P219:45Nicholas Robertson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (19), Steven Lorentz (9)TOR 3 – 1 CHI · TOR 82% → 94% +12TOR 82% → 94%+12 pts
- P219:53Philipp Kurashev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (8), Tyler Bertuzzi (13)TOR 3 – 2 CHI · CHI 6% → 18% +12CHI 6% → 18%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 69%
- ML TOR -250 / CHI +210
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 63.5%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -221
- CHI +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CHI and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −5 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +96 Elo | TOR 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 66.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 44.0%32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%20th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 7th of 3214–11 | Road vs home | 11–1729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–27 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–23 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 27–29 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.