Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Maple Leafs- Pontus HolmbergGoals2
- Pontus HolmbergAssists1
- Pontus HolmbergPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:40Pontus Holmberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (24)3–6
- P318:37Auston Matthews Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Chris Tanev (14)3–5
- P315:06Jaccob Slavin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (19), Brent Burns (17)3–4
- P314:46Andrei Svechnikov Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (41), Shayne Gostisbehere (24)2–4
- P312:25Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (36), Andrei Svechnikov (24)1–4
- P115:06John Tavares Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (23), Pontus Holmberg (7)0–4
- P16:39David Kampf Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (8), Alex Steeves (1)0–3
- P13:29Pontus Holmberg Goal (3) , assists: none0–2
- P12:50Alex Steeves Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:50Alex Steeves Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (25)CAR 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 48% → 63% +15TOR 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P13:29Pontus Holmberg Goal (3) , assists: noneCAR 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 63% → 76% +13TOR 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P16:39David Kampf Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (8), Alex Steeves (1)CAR 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 77% → 87% +10TOR 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P115:06John Tavares Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (23), Pontus Holmberg (7)CAR 0 – 4 TOR · TOR 89% → 95% +6TOR 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P315:06Jaccob Slavin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (19), Brent Burns (17)CAR 3 – 4 TOR · CAR <1% → 10% +10CAR <1% → 10%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 52%
- ML CAR -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 44.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.8 – 2.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +25 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.63 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +37 Elo | TOR 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.8% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 19th of 3212–16 | Road vs home | 19–118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–30 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–33 | 26–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–0 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.