Detroit Red Wings at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Simon EdvinssonGoals2
- Elmer SoderblomAssists1
- Simon EdvinssonPoints2
Wild- Marco RossiGoals1
- Jared SpurgeonAssists1
- Marco RossiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:35Simon Edvinsson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Albert Johansson (5), Elmer Soderblom (4)3–2
- P213:12Simon Edvinsson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (24), J.T. Compher (17)2–2
- P210:12Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (13), Marco Kasper (13)1–2
- P111:11Jakub Lauko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Devin Shore (3), Yakov Trenin (7)0–2
- P17:17Marco Rossi Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (30), Jared Spurgeon (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:17Marco Rossi Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (30), Jared Spurgeon (15)DET 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 51% → 66% +15MIN 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P111:11Jakub Lauko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Devin Shore (3), Yakov Trenin (7)DET 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 67% → 80% +13MIN 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P210:12Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (13), Marco Kasper (13)DET 1 – 2 MIN · DET 15% → 30% +15DET 15% → 30%+15 pts
- P213:12Simon Edvinsson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (24), J.T. Compher (17)DET 2 – 2 MIN · DET 29% → 49% +21DET 29% → 49%+21 pts
- P311:35Simon Edvinsson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Albert Johansson (5), Elmer Soderblom (4)DET 3 – 2 MIN · DET 50% → 83% +34DET 50% → 83%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML DET -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +4 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +51 Elo | MIN 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 48.1%27th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 11th of 3213–13 | Road vs home | 13–1319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–22 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 30–12 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–28 | 27–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.