Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Robby FabbriAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals2
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:00Patrick Kane Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (12)4–5
- P319:07Cutter Gauthier Goal (11) Backhand, assists: none4–4
- P317:44Olen Zellweger Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (12), Robby Fabbri (8)3–4
- P27:04Cutter Gauthier Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Jackson LaCombe (18), Mason McTavish (15)2–4
- P22:14Michael Rasmussen Goal (9) Deflected, assists: J.T. Compher (16), Erik Gustafsson (12)1–4
- P18:24Ryan Strome Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (25), Frank Vatrano (15)1–3
- P15:06Patrick Kane Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (30), Lucas Raymond (41)0–3
- P14:29Alex DeBrincat Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (29), Patrick Kane (21)0–2
- P13:11Marco Kasper Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Lucas Raymond (40)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:11Marco Kasper Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Lucas Raymond (40)ANA 0 – 1 DET · DET 63% → 76% +13DET 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P14:29Alex DeBrincat Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (29), Patrick Kane (21)ANA 0 – 2 DET · DET 76% → 86% +10DET 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P18:24Ryan Strome Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (25), Frank Vatrano (15)ANA 1 – 3 DET · ANA 7% → 14% +7ANA 7% → 14%+7 pts
- P319:07Cutter Gauthier Goal (11) Backhand, assists: noneANA 4 – 4 DET · ANA <1% → 48% +48ANA <1% → 48%+48 pts
- OT4:00Patrick Kane Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (12)ANA 4 – 5 DET · DET 52% → >99% +48DET 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 63%
- ML ANA +160 / DET -190
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- DET: Elo 61.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -170
- ANA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.4 – 3.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | DET and ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +79 Elo | DET 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 47.6%28th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3212–16 | Road vs home | 15–1517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–18 | 35–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 34–17 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 18–37 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.