Anaheim Ducks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Jackson LaCombeAssists2
- Jackson LaCombePoints2
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Mason LohreiAssists2
- Mason LohreiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:39Leo Carlsson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (13), Troy Terry (24)3–2
- P318:49Morgan Geekie Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (22), Brad Marchand (25)2–2
- P29:08Elias Lindholm Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (41), Mason Lohrei (21)2–1
- P119:22Frank Vatrano Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (12), Jackson LaCombe (17)2–0
- P117:27Trevor Zegras Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (16), Leo Carlsson (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:27Trevor Zegras Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (16), Leo Carlsson (11)ANA 1 – 0 BOS · ANA 40% → 57% +17ANA 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P119:22Frank Vatrano Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (12), Jackson LaCombe (17)ANA 2 – 0 BOS · ANA 57% → 74% +16ANA 57% → 74%+16 pts
- P29:08Elias Lindholm Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (41), Mason Lohrei (21)ANA 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 21% → 39% +17BOS 21% → 39%+17 pts
- P318:49Morgan Geekie Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (22), Brad Marchand (25)ANA 2 – 2 BOS · BOS <1% → 52% +51BOS <1% → 52%+51 pts
- OT3:39Leo Carlsson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (13), Troy Terry (24)ANA 3 – 2 BOS · ANA 48% → >99% +51ANA 48% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 62%
- ML ANA +155 / BOS -185
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -166
- ANA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | 0 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +96 Elo | BOS 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3211–16 | Road vs home | 18–1211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–18 | 25–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 33–17 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 18–36 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.