New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Luke HughesAssists1
- Luke HughesPoints1
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists3
- Martin NecasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:18Logan O'Connor Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Parker Kelly (9), Miles Wood (2)1–5
- P316:40Casey Mittelstadt Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Drouin (18), Ross Colton (4)1–4
- P314:14Nathan MacKinnon Goal (23) Batted, assists: Cale Makar (44), Martin Necas (47)1–3
- P38:28Jack Hughes Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (20)1–2
- P32:57Nathan MacKinnon Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (46), Cale Makar (43)0–2
- P18:54Artturi Lehkonen Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Martin Necas (45), Nathan MacKinnon (67)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:54Artturi Lehkonen Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Martin Necas (45), Nathan MacKinnon (67)NJ 0 – 1 COL · COL 58% → 73% +14COL 58% → 73%+14 pts
- P32:57Nathan MacKinnon Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (46), Cale Makar (43)NJ 0 – 2 COL · COL 79% → 93% +14COL 79% → 93%+14 pts
- P38:28Jack Hughes Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (20)NJ 1 – 2 COL · NJ 4% → 18% +14NJ 4% → 18%+14 pts
- P314:14Nathan MacKinnon Goal (23) Batted, assists: Cale Makar (44), Martin Necas (47)NJ 1 – 3 COL · COL 89% → >99% +10COL 89% → >99%+10 pts
- P316:40Casey Mittelstadt Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Drouin (18), Ross Colton (4)NJ 1 – 4 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 59%
- ML NJ +135 / COL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- COL: Elo 59.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -143
- NJ +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +2 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +63 Elo | COL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.019th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 52.7%5th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 8th of 3216–13 | Road vs home | 16–1212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–35 | 23–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 17–30 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–39 | 29–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.