Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Sam MalinskiGoals1
- Jonathan DrouinAssists1
- Sam MalinskiPoints1
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Colton SissonsAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:11Jonathan Marchessault Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (4), Roman Josi (29)1–2
- P21:45Justin Barron Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (9), Cole Smith (5)1–1
- P21:15Sam Malinski Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (17), Juuso Parssinen (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:15Sam Malinski Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (17), Juuso Parssinen (7)COL 1 – 0 NSH · COL 54% → 71% +17COL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P21:45Justin Barron Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (9), Cole Smith (5)COL 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 29% → 46% +17NSH 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P39:11Jonathan Marchessault Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (4), Roman Josi (29)COL 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 48% → 79% +31NSH 48% → 79%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 55%
- ML COL -135 / NSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- COL: Elo 56.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −6 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +43 Elo | COL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.730th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 50.6%10th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 5th of 3217–12 | Road vs home | 13–1317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–34 | 21–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 17–28 | 9–25 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–28 | 24–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–3 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.