Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints3
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Martin PospisilAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:14Rasmus Andersson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (15), Nazem Kadri (21)4–2
- P312:53Martin Necas Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (5), Parker Kelly (7)4–1
- P219:42Martin Necas Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (63), Cale Makar (40)3–1
- P25:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (62), Martin Necas (44)2–1
- P21:20Cale Makar Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (61), Devon Toews (19)1–1
- P13:22Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (24), Matt Coronato (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:22Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (24), Matt Coronato (16)COL 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 42% → 57% +15CGY 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P21:20Cale Makar Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (61), Devon Toews (19)COL 1 – 1 CGY · COL 38% → 56% +18COL 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P25:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (62), Martin Necas (44)COL 2 – 1 CGY · COL 56% → 74% +18COL 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P219:42Martin Necas Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (63), Cale Makar (40)COL 3 – 1 CGY · COL 77% → 91% +14COL 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P312:53Martin Necas Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (5), Parker Kelly (7)COL 4 – 1 CGY · COL 99% → >99% +1COL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML COL -150 / CGY +130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- COL: Elo 53.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -138
- CGY +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 2.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +6 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +23 Elo | COL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 8th of 3215–12 | Road vs home | 16–1214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–34 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28 | 21–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–0 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.