Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals1
- Parker KellyAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints1
Oilers- Corey PerryGoals2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists2
- Corey PerryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:38Martin Necas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (66)5–4
- P215:59Leon Draisaitl Goal (40) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (20)4–4
- P27:48Corey Perry Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (10), Mattias Ekholm (17)4–3
- P26:39Cale Makar Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (8)4–2
- P118:08Artturi Lehkonen Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (65), Devon Toews (21)3–2
- P112:22Corey Perry Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Adam Henrique (9), Kasperi Kapanen (5)2–2
- P111:46Cale Makar Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (64), Devon Toews (20)2–1
- P110:39Leon Draisaitl Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (19), Evan Bouchard (35)1–1
- P19:48Nathan MacKinnon Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (41), Artturi Lehkonen (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:08Artturi Lehkonen Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (65), Devon Toews (21)COL 3 – 2 EDM · COL 39% → 56% +17COL 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P26:39Cale Makar Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (8)COL 4 – 2 EDM · COL 60% → 77% +17COL 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P27:48Corey Perry Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (10), Mattias Ekholm (17)COL 4 – 3 EDM · EDM 23% → 40% +17EDM 23% → 40%+17 pts
- P215:59Leon Draisaitl Goal (40) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (20)COL 4 – 4 EDM · EDM 36% → 58% +23EDM 36% → 58%+23 pts
- P315:38Martin Necas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (66)COL 5 – 4 EDM · COL 46% → 90% +43COL 46% → 90%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 63%
- ML COL +160 / EDM -190
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- EDM: Elo 63.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +93 Elo | EDM 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 63.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.35th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 55.1%2nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 7th of 3216–12 | Road vs home | 18–1111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–34 | 20–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–28 | 16–33 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 28–28 | 23–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–3 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.