Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Brady SkjeiGoals2
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists4
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:24Jonathan Marchessault Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–6
- P312:30
Dylan Cozens Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (24), Owen Power (23)4–5 - P36:58Filip Forsberg Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (20), Jonathan Marchessault (27)3–5
- P217:43Alex Tuch Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (22), Rasmus Dahlin (35)3–4
- P215:13Brady Skjei Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (19), Jonathan Marchessault (26)2–4
- P214:31Filip Forsberg Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (18), Roman Josi (28)2–3
- P118:25Rasmus Dahlin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (9), Ryan McLeod (16)2–2
- P115:21Bowen Byram Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (23), Alex Tuch (23)1–2
- P19:26Brady Skjei Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (17), Jonathan Marchessault (25)0–2
- P16:57Tommy Novak Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:25Rasmus Dahlin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (9), Ryan McLeod (16)BUF 2 – 2 NSH · BUF 31% → 48% +17BUF 31% → 48%+17 pts
- P214:31Filip Forsberg Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (18), Roman Josi (28)BUF 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 51% → 72% +21NSH 51% → 72%+21 pts
- P215:13Brady Skjei Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (19), Jonathan Marchessault (26)BUF 2 – 4 NSH · NSH 73% → 88% +15NSH 73% → 88%+15 pts
- P217:43Alex Tuch Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (22), Rasmus Dahlin (35)BUF 3 – 4 NSH · BUF 11% → 26% +15BUF 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P36:58Filip Forsberg Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (20), Jonathan Marchessault (27)BUF 3 – 5 NSH · NSH 79% → 94% +15NSH 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 52%
- ML BUF +100 / NSH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NSH: Elo 48.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NSH -109
- BUF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +10 Elo | BUF 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.7% | Shot share | 50.7%10th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 25th of 329–15 | Road vs home | 12–1324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–26 | 20–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 31–22 | 23–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–2 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.