Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Devils- Dougie HamiltonAssists2
- Dougie HamiltonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:51Wyatt Johnston Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P311:40Jack Hughes Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (49), Dougie Hamilton (30)3–2
- P310:35Matt Duchene Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (23)3–1
- P310:00Jack Hughes Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (29), Jesper Bratt (48)2–1
- P15:44Thomas Harley Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (34), Wyatt Johnston (32)2–0
- P13:58Evgenii Dadonov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (5), Mavrik Bourque (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:58Evgenii Dadonov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (5), Mavrik Bourque (9)DAL 1 – 0 NJ · DAL 47% → 62% +15DAL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P15:44Thomas Harley Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (34), Wyatt Johnston (32)DAL 2 – 0 NJ · DAL 62% → 75% +13DAL 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P310:00Jack Hughes Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (29), Jesper Bratt (48)DAL 2 – 1 NJ · NJ 4% → 19% +16NJ 4% → 19%+16 pts
- P310:35Matt Duchene Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (23)DAL 3 – 1 NJ · DAL 81% → 96% +15DAL 81% → 96%+15 pts
- P311:40Jack Hughes Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (49), Dougie Hamilton (30)DAL 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 3% → 17% +14NJ 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML DAL +105 / NJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 47.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- DAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.7 – 2.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −7 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +16 Elo | DAL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 52.5%7th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 6th of 3215–11 | Road vs home | 14–1316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–30 | 23–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–26 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–33 | 19–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.