New Jersey Devils at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Paul CotterPoints1
CanadiensScoring summary
- P310:09Luke Hughes Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (23), Dawson Mercer (12)4–0
- P31:53Jack Hughes Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (10)3–0
- P212:44Paul Cotter Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jesper Bratt (47), Jack Hughes (41)2–0
- P113:43Jesper Bratt Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (8), Dougie Hamilton (28)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:43Jesper Bratt Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (8), Dougie Hamilton (28)NJ 1 – 0 MTL · NJ 57% → 73% +15NJ 57% → 73%+15 pts
- P212:44Paul Cotter Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jesper Bratt (47), Jack Hughes (41)NJ 2 – 0 MTL · NJ 75% → 89% +14NJ 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P31:53Jack Hughes Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (10)NJ 3 – 0 MTL · NJ 93% → 98% +6NJ 93% → 98%+6 pts
- P310:09Luke Hughes Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (23), Dawson Mercer (12)NJ 4 – 0 MTL · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 58%
- ML NJ -155 / MTL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -140
- MTL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 2.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −12 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +16 Elo | NJ 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 46.6%30th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%30th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 10th of 3214–13 | Road vs home | 13–1420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–34 | 30–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 19–37 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–1 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.