Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals2
- Lian BichselAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints3
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Andrew PoturalskiAssists1
- Walker DuehrPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:37Jamie Benn Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Lian Bichsel (3)8–3
- P313:00Walker Duehr Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (5), Ty Dellandrea (5)7–3
- P312:33Thomas Harley Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (15), Roope Hintz (14)7–2
- P311:20Wyatt Johnston Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Oskar Bäck (9), Colin Blackwell (8)6–2
- P215:42Mavrik Bourque Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (22), Evgenii Dadonov (16)5–2
- P27:30Matt Duchene Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (20), Wyatt Johnston (31)4–2
- P113:24Mason Marchment Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (33), Mikael Granlund (34)3–2
- P110:08Jason Robertson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (4), Lian Bichsel (2)2–2
- P13:02Matt Duchene Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (33)1–2
- P12:46Fabian Zetterlund Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Will Smith (15), Andrew Poturalski (1)0–2
- P11:25William Eklund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (23), Tyler Toffoli (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:25William Eklund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (23), Tyler Toffoli (16)DAL 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 33% → 48% +14SJ 33% → 48%+14 pts
- P12:46Fabian Zetterlund Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Will Smith (15), Andrew Poturalski (1)DAL 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 48% → 63% +15SJ 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P13:02Matt Duchene Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (33)DAL 1 – 2 SJ · DAL 37% → 52% +15DAL 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P110:08Jason Robertson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (4), Lian Bichsel (2)DAL 2 – 2 SJ · DAL 50% → 65% +16DAL 50% → 65%+16 pts
- P113:24Mason Marchment Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (33), Mikael Granlund (34)DAL 3 – 2 SJ · DAL 65% → 79% +14DAL 65% → 79%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 67%
- ML DAL -225 / SJ +190
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 67.0%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -201
- SJ +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.7 – 2.8 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −9 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +123 Elo | DAL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 69.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 45.7%31st of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3214–11 | Road vs home | 9–1932nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–30 | 34–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–26 | — |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 34–22 |
| Overs–unders | 21–33 | 26–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–0 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.