Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Justin FaulkAssists2
- Justin FaulkPoints2
Scoring summary
- P219:50Dylan Holloway Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Justin Faulk (19), Jordan Kyrou (23)1–3
- P214:13Colton Parayko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (26), Robert Thomas (30)1–2
- P210:45Brayden Schenn Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (22), Justin Faulk (18)1–1
- P17:49Devon Toews Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (42), Artturi Lehkonen (11)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:49Devon Toews Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (42), Artturi Lehkonen (11)COL 1 – 0 STL · COL 58% → 73% +14COL 58% → 73%+14 pts
- P210:45Brayden Schenn Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (22), Justin Faulk (18)COL 1 – 1 STL · STL 25% → 44% +19STL 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P214:13Colton Parayko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (26), Robert Thomas (30)COL 1 – 2 STL · STL 44% → 66% +22STL 44% → 66%+22 pts
- P219:50Dylan Holloway Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Justin Faulk (19), Jordan Kyrou (23)COL 1 – 3 STL · STL 69% → 87% +18STL 69% → 87%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 59%
- ML COL -155 / STL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- COL: Elo 54.4%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -143
- STL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 2.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | STL and COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +30 Elo | COL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 48.4%25th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 7th of 3217–13 | Road vs home | 12–1728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–35 | 31–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–29 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 25–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–1 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.