Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Cole PerfettiAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kyle Connor Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P319:32Gabriel Vilardi Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (40), Cole Perfetti (25)3–3
- P317:10Pavel Buchnevich Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (29), Oskar Sundqvist (7)2–3
- P30:16Robert Thomas Goal (15) Wrap-around, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (25), Cam Fowler (13)2–2
- P211:01Gabriel Vilardi Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (33), Colin Miller (8)2–1
- P115:34Robert Thomas Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (24)1–1
- P14:58Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (24), Vladislav Namestnikov (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:34Robert Thomas Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (24)WPG 1 – 1 STL · STL 32% → 48% +16STL 32% → 48%+16 pts
- P211:01Gabriel Vilardi Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (33), Colin Miller (8)WPG 2 – 1 STL · WPG 52% → 71% +20WPG 52% → 71%+20 pts
- P30:16Robert Thomas Goal (15) Wrap-around, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (25), Cam Fowler (13)WPG 2 – 2 STL · STL 25% → 49% +24STL 25% → 49%+24 pts
- P317:10Pavel Buchnevich Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (29), Oskar Sundqvist (7)WPG 2 – 3 STL · STL 50% → 95% +46STL 50% → 95%+46 pts
- P319:32Gabriel Vilardi Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (40), Cole Perfetti (25)WPG 3 – 3 STL · WPG <1% → 50% +50WPG <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML WPG -120 / STL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 56.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −20 | −3 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +48 Elo | WPG 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 48.5%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217–9 | Road vs home | 12–1627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–24 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–18 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders | 28–28 | 24–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–1 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.