New Jersey Devils at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dougie HamiltonGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists3
- Nico HischierPoints3
PredatorsScoring summary
- P39:27Tomas Tatar Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (22)5–0
- P35:06Stefan Noesen Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (21), Jesper Bratt (51)4–0
- P214:28Seamus Casey Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (19), Jack Hughes (42)3–0
- P29:14Dougie Hamilton Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (20), Jesper Bratt (50)2–0
- P113:45Ondrej Palat Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (18), Dougie Hamilton (31)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:45Ondrej Palat Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (18), Dougie Hamilton (31)NJ 1 – 0 NSH · NJ 53% → 69% +16NJ 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P29:14Dougie Hamilton Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (20), Jesper Bratt (50)NJ 2 – 0 NSH · NJ 71% → 86% +14NJ 71% → 86%+14 pts
- P214:28Seamus Casey Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (19), Jack Hughes (42)NJ 3 – 0 NSH · NJ 88% → 96% +8NJ 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P35:06Stefan Noesen Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (21), Jesper Bratt (51)NJ 4 – 0 NSH · NJ 99% → >99% +1NJ 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P39:27Tomas Tatar Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (22)NJ 5 – 0 NSH · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML NJ -125 / NSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 50.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 2.7 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NSH and NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −3 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +3 Elo | NJ 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.730th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 50.4%10th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.8%21st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3215–13 | Road vs home | 14–1316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–35 | 22–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 20–32 | 9–25 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–38 | 24–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–1 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.