Montreal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals2
- Jordan EberleAssists3
- Brandon MontourPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT0:04Brandon Montour Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (34)4–5
- P317:48Matty Beniers Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (20), Brandon Montour (21)4–4
- P310:53Jani Nyman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (10), Brandon Montour (20)4–3
- P37:18Juraj Slafkovský Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jayden Struble (7), Nick Suzuki (49)4–2
- P214:04Juraj Slafkovský Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (27), Lane Hutson (47)3–2
- P211:21Alex Newhook Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (11)2–2
- P27:11Patrik Laine Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (48), Lane Hutson (46)1–2
- P24:47Eeli Tolvanen Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (9), Chandler Stephenson (33)0–2
- P14:54Brandon Montour Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:21Alex Newhook Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (11)MTL 2 – 2 SEA · MTL 25% → 44% +19MTL 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P214:04Juraj Slafkovský Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (27), Lane Hutson (47)MTL 3 – 2 SEA · MTL 44% → 66% +22MTL 44% → 66%+22 pts
- P37:18Juraj Slafkovský Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jayden Struble (7), Nick Suzuki (49)MTL 4 – 2 SEA · MTL 76% → 93% +18MTL 76% → 93%+18 pts
- P317:48Matty Beniers Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (20), Brandon Montour (21)MTL 4 – 4 SEA · SEA 3% → 52% +49SEA 3% → 52%+49 pts
- OT0:04Brandon Montour Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (34)MTL 4 – 5 SEA · SEA 53% → 91% +38SEA 53% → 91%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML MTL +135 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -143
- MTL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | 0 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +43 Elo | SEA 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 48.6%26th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.6%22nd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 13th of 3215–17 | Road vs home | 14–1928th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–28 | 32–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 35–21 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 34–30 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.