Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:53Evan Bouchard Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (56), Leon Draisaitl (48)2–3
- P210:19Joel Armia Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (45), Jake Evans (17)2–2
- P21:06Leon Draisaitl Goal (46) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (38), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22)1–2
- P115:14Cole Caufield Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P19:34Corey Perry Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Max Jones (1), Connor McDavid (55)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:34Corey Perry Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Max Jones (1), Connor McDavid (55)MTL 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 67% → 80% +13EDM 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P115:14Cole Caufield Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 1 EDM · MTL 20% → 34% +14MTL 20% → 34%+14 pts
- P21:06Leon Draisaitl Goal (46) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (38), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22)MTL 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 65% → 80% +15EDM 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P210:19Joel Armia Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (45), Jake Evans (17)MTL 2 – 2 EDM · MTL 20% → 37% +17MTL 20% → 37%+17 pts
- OT4:53Evan Bouchard Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (56), Leon Draisaitl (48)MTL 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 51% → 100% +49EDM 51% → 100%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 68%
- ML MTL +200 / EDM -240
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 65.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -212
- MTL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.7 – 3.8 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −5 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +111 Elo | EDM 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 69.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 53.9%3rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 15th of 3214–15 | Road vs home | 18–1313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–28 | 22–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 16–37 |
| Underdog | 32–21 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 33–28 | 28–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–2 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.