San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Will SmithGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists2
- Will SmithPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:21Cole Caufield Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (42), Sam Montembeault (1)3–4
- P32:22Alex Newhook Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Patrik Laine (9), Owen Beck (1)3–3
- P217:21Will Smith Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (2), Alexander Wennberg (17)3–2
- P119:04Nick Suzuki Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (40), Jayden Struble (6)2–2
- P112:38Nico Sturm Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (4), Collin Graf (3)2–1
- P16:49Nick Suzuki Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (25), Juraj Slafkovsky (23)1–1
- P13:56Fabian Zetterlund Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Will Smith (17), Alexander Wennberg (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:38Nico Sturm Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (4), Collin Graf (3)SJ 2 – 1 MTL · SJ 35% → 51% +16SJ 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P119:04Nick Suzuki Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (40), Jayden Struble (6)SJ 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 47% → 64% +17MTL 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P217:21Will Smith Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (2), Alexander Wennberg (17)SJ 3 – 2 MTL · SJ 40% → 63% +23SJ 40% → 63%+23 pts
- P32:22Alex Newhook Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Patrik Laine (9), Owen Beck (1)SJ 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 33% → 59% +26MTL 33% → 59%+26 pts
- OT3:21Cole Caufield Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (42), Sam Montembeault (1)SJ 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 53% → 99% +46MTL 53% → 99%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 67%
- ML SJ +190 / MTL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- MTL: Elo 68.2%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- MTL -201
- SJ +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1369 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −5 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +132 Elo | MTL 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 65.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.5% | Shot share | 47.2%29th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.1%30th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326–24 | Road vs home | 14–1624th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–23 | 32–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 36–23 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders | 27–32 | 31–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–2 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.