Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P211:32Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (39), Jayden Struble (4)5–2
- P25:14Josh Anderson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (10), Christian Dvorak (12)4–2
- P116:13Patrik Laine Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (39), Nick Suzuki (38)3–2
- P115:54Tim Stützle Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P113:20Jake Sanderson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (30), Tim Stützle (40)2–1
- P14:28Cole Caufield Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Arber Xhekaj (5), David Savard (11)2–0
- P12:28Brendan Gallagher Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:28Brendan Gallagher Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 0 OTT · MTL 40% → 55% +15MTL 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P113:20Jake Sanderson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (30), Tim Stützle (40)MTL 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 27% → 42% +15OTT 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P115:54Tim Stützle Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 42% → 59% +17OTT 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P116:13Patrik Laine Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (39), Nick Suzuki (38)MTL 3 – 2 OTT · MTL 42% → 58% +17MTL 42% → 58%+17 pts
- P25:14Josh Anderson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (10), Christian Dvorak (12)MTL 4 – 2 OTT · MTL 61% → 78% +17MTL 61% → 78%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML MTL +140 / OTT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 64.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- OTT -149
- MTL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +7 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +105 Elo | OTT 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 64.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 51.5%9th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.7%10th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 17th of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 16–97th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–26 | 24–32 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26 | 23–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–3 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.