Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints1
Panthers- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Nate SchmidtPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:38Anton Lundell Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–5
- P217:58Sam Bennett Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (35), Evan Rodrigues (12)1–4
- P216:26Gustav Forsling Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (9)1–3
- P211:36Aleksander Barkov Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (34), Carter Verhaeghe (28)1–2
- P26:18Matthew Tkachuk Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (31), Aleksander Barkov (38)1–1
- P16:38Brady Tkachuk Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (29), Tim Stützle (39)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:38Brady Tkachuk Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (29), Tim Stützle (39)OTT 1 – 0 FLA · OTT 38% → 54% +15OTT 38% → 54%+15 pts
- P26:18Matthew Tkachuk Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (31), Aleksander Barkov (38)OTT 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 40% → 59% +19FLA 40% → 59%+19 pts
- P211:36Aleksander Barkov Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (34), Carter Verhaeghe (28)OTT 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 59% → 77% +19FLA 59% → 77%+19 pts
- P216:26Gustav Forsling Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (9)OTT 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 78% → 91% +13FLA 78% → 91%+13 pts
- P217:58Sam Bennett Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (35), Evan Rodrigues (12)OTT 1 – 4 FLA · FLA 92% → 98% +6FLA 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML OTT +155 / FLA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 60.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -166
- OTT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.4 – 3.1 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +2 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +76 Elo | FLA 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.34th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 53.7%4th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3213–17 | Road vs home | 15–1113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–31 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–33 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–4 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.