Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Zemgus GirgensonsGoals1
- Cam AtkinsonAssists1
- Zemgus GirgensonsPoints1
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals2
- David SavardAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:44Anthony Cirelli Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (27), Brandon Hagel (36)5–3
- P39:19Brendan Gallagher Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none4–3
- P212:45Christian Dvorak Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: David Savard (10), Juraj Slafkovsky (22)4–2
- P26:43Zemgus Girgensons Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Atkinson (4), Michael Eyssimont (4)4–1
- P21:05Brayden Point Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (26), Victor Hedman (36)3–1
- P118:53Brendan Gallagher Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (8), Mike Matheson (21)2–1
- P110:28Victor Hedman Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (6), Anthony Cirelli (22)2–0
- P16:56Nick Paul Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (35)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:56Nick Paul Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (35)TB 1 – 0 MTL · TB 62% → 76% +14TB 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P110:28Victor Hedman Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (6), Anthony Cirelli (22)TB 2 – 0 MTL · TB 76% → 87% +11TB 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P118:53Brendan Gallagher Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (8), Mike Matheson (21)TB 2 – 1 MTL · MTL 12% → 24% +11MTL 12% → 24%+11 pts
- P21:05Brayden Point Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (26), Victor Hedman (36)TB 3 – 1 MTL · TB 76% → 88% +12TB 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P39:19Brendan Gallagher Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: noneTB 4 – 3 MTL · MTL 3% → 16% +13MTL 3% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 63%
- ML TB -190 / MTL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- TB: Elo 57.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -170
- MTL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 2.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MTL and TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +3 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +53 Elo | TB 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.917th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 46.9%29th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.0%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 16th of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 13–1526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–27 | 30–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–20 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30 | 29–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–2 MTL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.