San Jose Sharks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Will SmithAssists1
- William EklundPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:33Mark Scheifele Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (32), Kyle Connor (41)1–2
- P319:34Josh Morrissey Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P115:07William Eklund Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (24), Will Smith (16)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:07William Eklund Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (24), Will Smith (16)SJ 1 – 0 WPG · SJ 24% → 39% +15SJ 24% → 39%+15 pts
- P319:34Josh Morrissey Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: noneSJ 1 – 1 WPG · WPG <1% → 53% +53WPG <1% → 53%+53 pts
- OT1:33Mark Scheifele Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (32), Kyle Connor (41)SJ 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 58% → 96% +38WPG 58% → 96%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 79%
- ML SJ +360 / WPG -500
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 84.9%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -383
- SJ +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.3 – 4.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +12 | SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +300 Elo | WPG 84.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 82.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 83.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.7% | Shot share | 50.2%11th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 32nd of 326–23 | Road vs home | 22–84th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–23 | 32–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 22–19 |
| Underdog | 35–23 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–31 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–4 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.