San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:28Joel Hanley Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (21), Nazem Kadri (22)2–3
- P31:54Tyler Toffoli Goal (21) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (30), Shakir Mukhamadullin (1)2–2
- P23:35Kevin Rooney Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Lomberg (5), Martin Pospisil (16)1–2
- P17:27Nazem Kadri Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (15), MacKenzie Weegar (26)1–1
- P13:41Macklin Celebrini Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (17), Jake Walman (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:41Macklin Celebrini Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (17), Jake Walman (24)SJ 1 – 0 CGY · SJ 33% → 48% +15SJ 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P17:27Nazem Kadri Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (15), MacKenzie Weegar (26)SJ 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 51% → 66% +15CGY 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P23:35Kevin Rooney Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Lomberg (5), Martin Pospisil (16)SJ 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 64% → 79% +16CGY 64% → 79%+16 pts
- P31:54Tyler Toffoli Goal (21) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (30), Shakir Mukhamadullin (1)SJ 2 – 2 CGY · SJ 18% → 40% +22SJ 18% → 40%+22 pts
- P313:28Joel Hanley Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (21), Nazem Kadri (22)SJ 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 56% → 90% +34CGY 56% → 90%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 67%
- ML SJ +195 / CGY -230
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- CGY: Elo 70.0%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -206
- SJ +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.7 – 3.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +3 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +147 Elo | CGY 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 66.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.7% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 30th of 326–22 | Road vs home | 16–1415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–23 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 27–30 | 22–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–3 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.