Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Andre BurakovskyAssists1
- Andre BurakovskyPoints2
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:58Matty Beniers Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (15), Chandler Stephenson (30)3–2
- P315:19Andre Burakovsky Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (19)2–2
- P313:12Shane Wright Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (10), Andre Burakovsky (16)1–2
- P36:37Nazem Kadri Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (20), Daniil Miromanov (6)0–2
- P22:22Morgan Frost Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (11), MacKenzie Weegar (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:22Morgan Frost Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (11), MacKenzie Weegar (25)SEA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 55% → 72% +17CGY 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P36:37Nazem Kadri Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (20), Daniil Miromanov (6)SEA 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 80% → 95% +15CGY 80% → 95%+15 pts
- P313:12Shane Wright Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (10), Andre Burakovsky (16)SEA 1 – 2 CGY · SEA 1% → 13% +11SEA 1% → 13%+11 pts
- P315:19Andre Burakovsky Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (19)SEA 2 – 2 CGY · SEA 9% → 48% +39SEA 9% → 48%+39 pts
- OT2:58Matty Beniers Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (15), Chandler Stephenson (30)SEA 3 – 2 CGY · SEA 49% → 97% +49SEA 49% → 97%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 56%
- ML SEA +120 / CGY -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CGY: Elo 57.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CGY -128
- SEA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +4 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +50 Elo | CGY 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 50.0%14th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 21st of 3210–15 | Road vs home | 16–1315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–28 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 28–28 | 22–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–3 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.