Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P310:22Lane Hutson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (8), Nick Suzuki (41)0–4
- P210:04Nick Suzuki Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (7), Cole Caufield (24)0–3
- P117:37Patrik Laine Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Carrier (17), Alex Newhook (9)0–2
- P18:05Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jayden Struble (5), Nick Suzuki (40)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:05Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jayden Struble (5), Nick Suzuki (40)CAR 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 34% → 50% +15MTL 34% → 50%+15 pts
- P117:37Patrik Laine Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Carrier (17), Alex Newhook (9)CAR 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 53% → 69% +17MTL 53% → 69%+17 pts
- P210:04Nick Suzuki Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (7), Cole Caufield (24)CAR 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 77% → 89% +13MTL 77% → 89%+13 pts
- P310:22Lane Hutson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (8), Nick Suzuki (41)CAR 0 – 4 MTL · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 67%
- ML CAR -225 / MTL +190
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 60.1%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- CAR -201
- MTL +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.7 – 2.8 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −9 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +71 Elo | CAR 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.915th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.9% | Shot share | 47.2%29th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.0%30th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 20th of 3212–17 | Road vs home | 13–1625th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–31 | 31–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 30–21 |
| Overs–unders | 24–33 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–0 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.