Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- John KlingbergAssists2
- John KlingbergPoints2
Panthers- Nate SchmidtGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists2
- Aaron EkbladPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:35Zach Hyman Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (52), Mattias Ekholm (18)3–4
- P313:51Carter Verhaeghe Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (33), Aaron Ekblad (26)2–4
- P311:08Nate Schmidt Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (9), Anton Lundell (26)2–3
- P217:30Leon Draisaitl Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: John Klingberg (3)2–2
- P215:30Anton Lundell Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (25)1–2
- P114:41Brett Kulak Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (15), John Klingberg (2)1–1
- P112:28Uvis Balinskis Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:28Uvis Balinskis Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (25)EDM 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 56% → 71% +15FLA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P114:41Brett Kulak Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (15), John Klingberg (2)EDM 1 – 1 FLA · EDM 29% → 45% +16EDM 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P215:30Anton Lundell Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (25)EDM 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 54% → 75% +21FLA 54% → 75%+21 pts
- P217:30Leon Draisaitl Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: John Klingberg (3)EDM 2 – 2 FLA · EDM 24% → 46% +22EDM 24% → 46%+22 pts
- P311:08Nate Schmidt Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (9), Anton Lundell (26)EDM 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 52% → 84% +32FLA 52% → 84%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 56%
- ML EDM +120 / FLA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -128
- EDM +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.4 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +4 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +49 Elo | FLA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.812th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.2% | Shot share | 54.0%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3216–12 | Road vs home | 16–1213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–38 | 30–29 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–36 | 22–26 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 26–32 | 30–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–7 FLA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Dec 16FLA 6 @ EDM 5Picked EDM 54%Miss
- Jun 24EDM 1 @ FLA 2PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit
- Jun 21FLA 1 @ EDM 5PlayoffsPicked EDM 55%Hit
- Jun 18EDM 5 @ FLA 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Miss
- Jun 15FLA 1 @ EDM 8PlayoffsPicked EDM 54%Hit
- Jun 13FLA 4 @ EDM 3PlayoffsPicked EDM 54%Miss
- Jun 10EDM 1 @ FLA 4PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit
- Jun 8EDM 0 @ FLA 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit