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Seattle Kraken at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, KONG, KHN

Away

Kraken

25-29-4

2–1

at

Home

Panthers

34-21-3

SEA 31%FLA 69%

You didn't pick this one.

Amerant Bank Arena · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, KONG, KHN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored SEA favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%SEA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Kraken
Panthers

    Scoring summary

    • P37:03Jared McCann Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (11), Shane Wright (21)2–1
    • P211:37Eetu Luostarinen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (24), Niko Mikkola (14)1–1
    • P16:32Kaapo Kakko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (19), Shane Wright (20)1–0

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P16:32Kaapo Kakko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (19), Shane Wright (20)SEA 1 – 0 FLA · SEA 32% → 47% +15
    2. P211:37Eetu Luostarinen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (24), Niko Mikkola (14)SEA 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 42% → 63% +21
    3. P37:03Jared McCann Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (11), Shane Wright (21)SEA 2 – 1 FLA · SEA 41% → 71% +30

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Panthers 69%

    SolidMiss
    SEA 31%FLA 69%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

    Market
    FLA 69%
    ML SEA +210 / FLA -250
    Pre-line forecast
    FLA 72%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    FLA 68%
    Ratings vs. market
    −0.5 pts
    FLA: Elo 68.4%, market 68.9%
    Fair odds
    FLA -221
    SEA +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    SEA 2.2 – 3.3 FLA
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorSEAFLAWhy
    Team rating14601559Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+4+3SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsFLA +134 EloFLA 68.4%
    Market-implied ratingsFLA 72.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastFLA 71.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastFLA 68.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Seattle Kraken and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
    SEAStatFLA
    15th of 323.0Goals scored3.44th of 32
    24th of 323.2Goals allowed2.913th of 32
    22nd of 32−0.2Margin+0.59th of 32
    27th of 3248.1%Shot share53.9%3rd of 32
    21st of 3289.9%Save percentage90.4%12th of 32
    20th of 324–6Last 107–32nd of 32
    19th of 3211–15Road vs home16–1113th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    KrakenPanthers
    14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonSEAFLA
    Puck line29–2829–28
    Last 104–67–3
    Favorite7–1221–25
    Underdog22–168–3
    Overs–unders28–2930–27
    Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    SEA 1–2 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.