Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- John KlingbergGoals1
- John KlingbergAssists1
- John KlingbergPoints2
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals2
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Sean CouturierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:01Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (19)3–6
- P215:37Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (40), Rasmus Ristolainen (14)3–5
- P212:26Owen Tippett Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (22), Sean Couturier (18)3–4
- P28:34Mattias Ekholm Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (44)3–3
- P27:13Sean Couturier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (21)2–3
- P21:45Owen Tippett Goal (15) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P19:31Leon Draisaitl Goal (41) Backhand, assists: Matt Savoie (1), John Klingberg (1)2–1
- P17:06John Klingberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (10), Connor Brown (15)1–1
- P12:07Matvei Michkov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (16), Egor Zamula (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:45Owen Tippett Goal (15) Backhand, assists: noneEDM 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 23% → 39% +16PHI 23% → 39%+16 pts
- P27:13Sean Couturier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (21)EDM 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 39% → 59% +19PHI 39% → 59%+19 pts
- P28:34Mattias Ekholm Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (44)EDM 3 – 3 PHI · EDM 41% → 60% +20EDM 41% → 60%+20 pts
- P212:26Owen Tippett Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (22), Sean Couturier (18)EDM 3 – 4 PHI · PHI 40% → 61% +21PHI 40% → 61%+21 pts
- P215:37Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (40), Rasmus Ristolainen (14)EDM 3 – 5 PHI · PHI 63% → 82% +19PHI 63% → 82%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 64%
- ML EDM -200 / PHI +170
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 59.8%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -180
- PHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +7 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +69 Elo | EDM 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.0% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.5%32nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 4th of 3216–9 | Road vs home | 13–1422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–35 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–34 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 24–31 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.