Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kevin HayesAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints1
Flyers- Garnet HathawayGoals1
- Cam YorkAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:42Anthony Beauvillier Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Kevin Hayes (5), Danton Heinen (13)2–3
- P34:27Travis Konecny Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Cam York (9), Travis Sanheim (21)1–3
- P212:26Garnet Hathaway Goal (8) Deflected, assists: none1–2
- P24:19Erik Karlsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (27), Rickard Rakell (23)1–1
- P11:44Scott Laughton Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (39), Andrei Kuzmenko (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:44Scott Laughton Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (39), Andrei Kuzmenko (12)PIT 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 61% → 74% +13PHI 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P24:19Erik Karlsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (27), Rickard Rakell (23)PIT 1 – 1 PHI · PIT 25% → 42% +17PIT 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P212:26Garnet Hathaway Goal (8) Deflected, assists: nonePIT 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 57% → 77% +19PHI 57% → 77%+19 pts
- P34:27Travis Konecny Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Cam York (9), Travis Sanheim (21)PIT 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 80% → 94% +14PHI 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P35:42Anthony Beauvillier Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Kevin Hayes (5), Danton Heinen (13)PIT 2 – 3 PHI · PIT 5% → 19% +14PIT 5% → 19%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML PIT +145 / PHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.4 – 3.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +7 | PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +74 Elo | PHI 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 50.1%14th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.4%32nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 27th of 3210–19 | Road vs home | 12–1426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–28 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 29–27 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.