Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals3
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists3
- Alex OvechkinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:22Alex Ovechkin Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: none3–7
- P315:05Jeff Skinner Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: none3–6
- P310:38Dylan Strome Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (27), John Carlson (34)2–6
- P36:35Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (12), Zach Hyman (14)2–5
- P219:45Connor McMichael Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (33), Aliaksei Protas (26)1–5
- P218:39Alex Ovechkin Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (22)1–4
- P28:53Alex Ovechkin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (40), Aliaksei Protas (25)1–3
- P119:36Jakob Chychrun Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (19), Dylan Strome (39)1–2
- P117:15Tom Wilson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (35), Matt Roy (16)1–1
- P11:42Leon Draisaitl Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (21), Connor McDavid (50)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:42Leon Draisaitl Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (21), Connor McDavid (50)EDM 1 – 0 WSH · EDM 55% → 69% +14EDM 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P117:15Tom Wilson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (35), Matt Roy (16)EDM 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 29% → 46% +16WSH 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P119:36Jakob Chychrun Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (19), Dylan Strome (39)EDM 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 46% → 63% +17WSH 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P28:53Alex Ovechkin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (40), Aliaksei Protas (25)EDM 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 66% → 82% +16WSH 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P218:39Alex Ovechkin Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (22)EDM 1 – 4 WSH · WSH 87% → 96% +9WSH 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 55%
- ML EDM -135 / WSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 47.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | WSH and EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −12 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +15 Elo | WSH 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.7% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 91.2%2nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 4th of 3216–10 | Road vs home | 17–109th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–36 | 35–21 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–35 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 20–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.