Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists3
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints3
Penguins- Danton HeinenGoals1
- Philip TomasinoAssists2
- Philip TomasinoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:19Brandon Duhaime Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (15)8–3
- P314:22Danton Heinen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (8), Kevin Hayes (6)7–3
- P313:11Dylan Strome Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (18), Pierre-Luc Dubois (34)7–2
- P218:05Tom Wilson Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Martin Fehervary (13), Matt Roy (14)6–2
- P214:25Aliaksei Protas Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (17), John Carlson (32)5–2
- P214:17Jakob Chychrun Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (33), Trevor van Riemsdyk (16)4–2
- P210:38Jakob Chychrun Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (32), Connor McMichael (23)3–2
- P26:36Sidney Crosby Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Rickard Rakell (24), Erik Karlsson (33)2–2
- P21:10Martin Fehervary Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (8), Taylor Raddysh (17)2–1
- P118:21Kris Letang Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (26), Philip Tomasino (7)1–1
- P15:13Ethen Frank Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (9), Rasmus Sandin (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:13Ethen Frank Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (9), Rasmus Sandin (16)WSH 1 – 0 PIT · WSH 56% → 70% +14WSH 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P118:21Kris Letang Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (26), Philip Tomasino (7)WSH 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 28% → 45% +16PIT 28% → 45%+16 pts
- P21:10Martin Fehervary Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (8), Taylor Raddysh (17)WSH 2 – 1 PIT · WSH 55% → 72% +17WSH 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P26:36Sidney Crosby Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Rickard Rakell (24), Erik Karlsson (33)WSH 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 27% → 45% +18PIT 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P210:38Jakob Chychrun Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (32), Connor McMichael (23)WSH 3 – 2 PIT · WSH 54% → 74% +19WSH 54% → 74%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 56%
- ML WSH -140 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -128
- PIT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 2.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +9 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +47 Elo | WSH 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 48.6%24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%27th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 1st of 3219–9 | Road vs home | 13–1423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–21 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 20–5 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 26–29 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.