Florida Panthers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Justin SourdifGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Justin SourdifPoints1
Predators- Michael McCarronGoals1
- Colton SissonsAssists1
- Michael McCarronPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:34Mackie Samoskevich Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Sam Bennett (18)4–1
- P39:02Gustav Forsling Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (24), Aleksander Barkov (40)3–1
- P34:30Michael McCarron Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Colton Sissons (10), Cole Smith (6)2–1
- P24:21Justin Sourdif Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (10), Niko Mikkola (15)2–0
- P11:23Sam Bennett Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (32), Aleksander Barkov (39)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:23Sam Bennett Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (32), Aleksander Barkov (39)FLA 1 – 0 NSH · FLA 59% → 72% +14FLA 59% → 72%+14 pts
- P24:21Justin Sourdif Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (10), Niko Mikkola (15)FLA 2 – 0 NSH · FLA 74% → 87% +13FLA 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P34:30Michael McCarron Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Colton Sissons (10), Cole Smith (6)FLA 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 6% → 20% +14NSH 6% → 20%+14 pts
- P39:02Gustav Forsling Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (24), Aleksander Barkov (40)FLA 3 – 1 NSH · FLA 83% → 96% +14FLA 83% → 96%+14 pts
- P315:34Mackie Samoskevich Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Sam Bennett (18)FLA 4 – 1 NSH · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML FLA -155 / NSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -143
- NSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −4 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +53 Elo | FLA 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.9% | Shot share | 50.2%14th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%21st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 6th of 3216–12 | Road vs home | 14–1419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–29 | 22–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 21–26 | 9–25 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 30–28 | 24–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–1 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.