Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints1
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:23Nick Paul Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Jake Guentzel (28), Nikita Kucherov (59)1–4
- P25:38Victor Hedman Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (29), Nikita Kucherov (58)1–3
- P20:29Brandon Hagel Goal (28) Wrap-around, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (3), Anthony Cirelli (24)1–2
- P113:11Michael Eyssimont Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Gage Goncalves (7)1–1
- P111:53Leon Draisaitl Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (51), Evan Bouchard (36)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:53Leon Draisaitl Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (51), Evan Bouchard (36)EDM 1 – 0 TB · EDM 47% → 63% +16EDM 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P113:11Michael Eyssimont Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Gage Goncalves (7)EDM 1 – 1 TB · TB 37% → 53% +16TB 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P20:29Brandon Hagel Goal (28) Wrap-around, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (3), Anthony Cirelli (24)EDM 1 – 2 TB · TB 53% → 70% +17TB 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P25:38Victor Hedman Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (29), Nikita Kucherov (58)EDM 1 – 3 TB · TB 71% → 85% +14TB 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P37:23Nick Paul Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Jake Guentzel (28), Nikita Kucherov (59)EDM 1 – 4 TB · TB 95% → >99% +4TB 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML EDM +105 / TB -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- TB: Elo 54.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.2 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +7 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +32 Elo | TB 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.83rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.4% | Shot share | 50.1%14th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.3%2nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3216–11 | Road vs home | 19–96th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–37 | 29–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–36 | 20–20 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–31 | 25–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.